1995 ALCS Preview

Arlington, TX -

The ALCS will take place tonight in the SBS between the Texas Rangers and the Toronto Blue Jays. These two teams had the top two records in the AL this year, but that is where the similarities end. The Rangers are looking to make the World Series in the first postseason trip in their 35 year existence, while the Blue Jays are looking to create a dynasty by adding a 3rd ring in 4 seasons (and making the playoffs in 5 of the last 6 complete seasons). However, the beauty of baseball is that the past doesn't always matter, and anything can happen in a seven game series. Let's take a look at the rosters of each team and see what we all have in store for us:

Catcher: The Rangers' Ivan Rodriguez is a manager's dream behind the dish. He can hit for average (.330 BA), he can hit for power (32 HR, .556 SLG), and he can field his position (+4.6 ZR and 41.8 Runners Caught Stealing). Rodriguez is young, and the complete package behind the plate. The Blue Jays rely on mid-season acquisition B.J. Surhoff, a solid, yet unspectacular player who definitely provided an upgrade over current backup Greg Myers. Big edge to the Rangers here, but this has much more to do with what Rodriguez can do than what Surhoff can't.

First Base: Mike Stanley's stats for year scream "meh." He didn't hit particularly well (.249 BA), hit for some power (18 HR), but not as much as you would hope for from 1B. He is also a bit below average defensively. The Blue Jays counter with John Olerud, who had a solid season. He doesn't have great numbers (.274 BA, 13 HR), but holds an edge over Stanley with his excellent glove and his ability to get on base (.412 OBP). Advantage Blue Jays.

Second Base: "Sweet Lou" Whitaker returns to the post-season for the first time in eight seasons with the Rangers. In Detroit (which Whitaker had called home since his big-league debut in 1977), Whitaker put together a solid campaign, but since moving to Texas, he has been a shell of his former self. He still possesses plus power for a 2B (20 HR), but the consistency that had been his trademark for over a decade appears to be on the wain. For Toronto, Jeff Kent excels in almost every aspect game: he hits for average and power, is an excellent defender and is also developing an eye at the plate. Big edge to the Blue Jays here, unless Whitaker can find a time machine befores the series start (now watch Sweet Lou hit .450 with 4 bombs in the series while capturing the ALCS MVP).

Shortstop: Rookie Michael Young has become the starter out of necessity for the Rangers, following Jose Hernandez' horrific season. Young will be a nice player eventually and has done all that can be expected of him, but at this point he is not the type of player you expect to see starting on a playoff team. He batting average is not terrible (.251), but over 4 of his 50 big league hits thus far have not been singles (4 2B, 0 3B, 0 HR). Young is average in the field. Alex Gonzalez of the Blue Jays won't be making an All-Star anytime soon, but he does have some pop (18 HR), provides speed on the base paths (23 SB), and is an above average defender at a premium defensively postion. Advantage Blue Jays here, although this position is not really a strength for either team.

Third Base: It's all about the long ball here. Dean Palmer mans the hot corner for Rangers, and hits for nice power (37 HR) while displaying nice patience at the plate (78 BB). Palmer doesn't hit for a great average though, and is a butcher in the field (37 errors and a .909 fielding percentage). At 3B, the Blue Jays turn to another mid-season acquisition in Gary Sheffield. Sheffield moved from RF to 3B upon his arrival in Toronto, and he has led the charge for the Blue Jays offensively since (to the tune of a 1.002 OPS since the trade). Once again, the advantage goes to the Blue Jays, but either player is capable of playing a role in the outcome of this series.

Left Field: If you ask scouts, they will tell you that the Rangers' Juan Gonzalez is vastly superior to Glenallen Hill of the Blue Jays. However, their stats for season make them pretty comparable players. Both hit for power and drive in runs (43 HR and 117 RBI for Gonzalez, 38 HR and 129 RBI for Hill) and both players are below average fielders. Gonzalez does have an advantage in OBP, so for that and his reputation, the edge goes to the Rangers.

Center Field: Playing CF for the Rangers is Sammy Sosa, yet another power hitter (41 HR and a .553 slugging percentage). Derek Bell patrols CF for the Blue Jays, and has provided a steady top of the order presence (.315 BA, .378 OBP, 17 HR). Both players are a threat to swipe the occasional base (24 SB for Bell, 15 SB for Sosa), and neither player is considered a true CF (which viewers will quickly see once the series starts). All in all, both players have provided similar value to their teams in very different ways. In the end though, the edge goes to the Rangers, as in a short series Sosa's bat seems more likely to make a difference than Bell's.

Right Field: The Rangers' RF Ruben Sierra enjoyed a nice comeback season that saw him hit 33 HR from the nine hole for Texas (the fact that the Rangers nine hitter has 33 HR tells you plenty about the fire power they possess). Sierra posted a solid .889 OPS on the season, but his work in the field this year left something to be desired (which is surprising, as up to this point Sierra had been a solid defender in his career). Right Field for Toronto is the domain of the odds-on favorite for AL Rookie of the Year, Shawn Green. Green trumped Sierra's power output for the season (.589 to .537 in SLG) while posting a .313 average and playing excellent defense in RF. Although it's tough to rely on rookies on the big stage like this, you have to give the edge to the Blue Jays here.

Designated Hitter: Rusty "the Red Baron" Greer is the Rangers DH and leadoff hitter. Greer does a little bit of everything, hitting for average (.301 BA), getting on base (.396 OPB), stealing bases (16 SB), and hitting for power (although with "only" 23 HR, I'm not sure that counts for power in Texas). Toronto's DH is the Crime Dog, Fred McGriff. When he's not pimping Tom Emanski's Instructional Video, McGriff is a nice middle of the order bat for the Blue Jays. Although McGriff is a solid player, Greer's all around ability give the advantage to the Rangers.

Starting Pitching: The Rangers rotation is headed by Kevin Brown, Bobby Witt and Brian Bohanon. Brown a true ace, a flame-throwing workhorse (19 W, 248.2 IP, 3.04 ERA). Witt and Bohanon are both solid pitchers who posted sub-4.00 ERAs, which is not easy to do in the bandbox known as The Ballpark in Arlington. If the Rangers deviate from their 3 man rotation, Kenny Rogers would get the calls as the number 4 starter. Toronto looks like they will enter the series with a 4 man rotation that includes Todd Stottlemyre, David Wells, Pat Hentgen, and Jaime Navarro. Stottlemyre is the ace for the Blue Jays, but did not have quite as good a season as Brown thus far. Wells is a decent pitcher with a nice win total (16), but his secondary stats indicate that he did not have a great year. Hentgen and Navarro are solid, but unspectacular. Another factor to consider is that the Rangers swept the Brewers in the ALDS, while the Blue Jays were taken to the limit by the Indians in their divisional series. This means that Stottlemyre would have to start on short rest to go Game 1, or the Blue Jays will have to turn to Navarro or Hentgen. In the end, the top of the Rangers rotation is stronger, and is better setup for the series (Brown can go up to three times in the series), so they have the edge here.

Bullpen: The Ranger bullpen is flithy. Closer Tom Henke has experience and is one of the most respected closers in the game, and Matt Whiteside, Robb Nen and Darren Oliver have all had excellent season. This is especially important if Texas continues with their three man rotation, as starters pitching on short rest tend to not go as deep into the game. The Blue Jays boast a solid relief core as well, with Closer Mike Timlin headlining. Other relievers of not are Xavier Hernandez, David Weathers and Tim Crabtree. These units are pretty close to one another, but Henke's ability and experience puts the Rangers over the top here.

The Verdict: As you can see, these are two great, even matched teams. The Blue Jays have a big edge in the infield, while Rangers outfield and pitching seem to have the edge. The mid-season reinforcement will provide a boost to the Blue Jays, but the prediction here is that the Rangers prevail in seven games and head to their first World Series. Good luck to both teams!